Claire Madden discussing global population projections to 2100 on ABC News

A report by Lancet and The University of Washington projects the impact of declining fertility rates on population projections around the globe to the year 2100. 

They estimate that 183 of the 195 countries will not be at replacement level with fertility rates by 2100.  Replacement level is when the average number of children is 2.1 babies per woman (higher than 2.0 as not every child makes it to adulthood). In Australia, the current total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.74 (in 2018), which has declined from 2.02 babies per woman since 2008.  Australia's TFR has been below replacement level since 1976 (ABS).

The report by Lancet projects that global population is projected to peak in 2064 at approximately 9.7 billion and then begin to decline, estimating a world population of 8.8 billion by 2100.  The report identifies that 23 countries are likely to see their population halve from their current population size, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain. 

It is worth considering what the impact of these global population changes may be in each country. In Australia where 60% of our current population growth has been attributed to net overseas migration, what would the impact on migration be if populations are in decline globally?  What will the impacts be on economic growth and on global powers? 

Watch the interview with social researcher and demographer Claire Madden on ABC News. 

For further information, see the full report by Lancet and the University of Washington.